
As fantasy owners are well aware, if your RBs were going against Minnesota anytime over the past few seasons, you knew it was going to be a rough week. That's because the "Williams Wall' made it virtually impossible to penetrate their defensive line. But if the suspensions to Vikings DTs Kevin and Pat Williams are not delayed and indeed keep the pair out for the rest of the regular season, that changes things a bit.
The timing of this could not be any better for owners of RBs set to take on the Vikings, who had been allowing a paltry 73.1 rushing yards per game. The Williamses would be replaced up the middle by Fred Evans and Ellis Wyms — not exactly a duo that strikes fear in opposing rushers. And all of a sudden, you might not have to bench your RB just because Minnesota is on the schedule.
The first RB who'll get a crack at the Vikes' weakened D-line is Kevin Smith, who actually rushed for 62 yards on just five carries in the teams' Week Six meeting. Hopefully you don't have to rely on Smith in your fantasy playoffs, but if you do, he's certainly not as bad of an option as he appeared a couple days ago.
When a Williamses-less line could really affect matchups is in the following couple weeks. The Cards host Minnesota in Week 15, and Tim Hightower goes from being a poor start to at least a serviceable one. Assuming he can get back on track this Sunday against the Rams, I think he'd definitely deserve starting consideration vs. the Vikings. After all, he does have nine TDs this season.
Finally, Minnesota faces the Falcons in Week 16, which is the championship week in most leagues. Michael Turner hasn't done much against good defenses this season, so it would've been reasonable to expect he'd struggle against the Williams Wall. However, with that wall likely torn down, Turner could be in store for a big day in the Metrodome. It looks like his owners really lucked out here, while those that have to face him can just hope the Vikes' DT replacements are half-decent.
I can pretty much guarantee that somehow, some way, the outcome of many fantasy leagues will be altered by the suspensions of Kevin and Pat Williams. Hopefully, it will benefit your squad and not be the thing that costs you a title.
With the Browns' offense looking like a real mess now that QBs Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson and TE Kellen Winslow are out with injuries, it got me thinking: There are some pretty awful fantasy situations out there right now. And with the playoffs about to begin, players from a few teams are probably best left untouched in the final month.
Obviously, Cleveland has turned into one of those clubs. Now that Ken Dorsey is set to take over, can you really trust WR Braylon Edwards? He was already having an ugly season, and now he'll have a inexperienced QB with a weak arm trying to get him the ball. RB Jamal Lewis won't benefit either from having Dorsey under center. Defenses likely will stack the box, resulting in little running room for the back. With the Titans and Eagles on the docket in the next two weeks, I'd be avoiding Browns skill guys at all costs.
Things aren't much better for Ohio's other team, the Bengals. It's unlikely that Carson Palmer will return before season's end, meaning Ryan Fitzpatrick will continue to be their QB. That's clearly bad news for their receivers. Chad Ocho Cinco was unimpressive in his return Sunday — kind of like he's been all year — and T.J. Houshmandzadeh didn't fare much better. In fact, while Housh's season numbers aren't bad, he's scored just one TD since Week Five and has topped 65 yards only once since then. I'm not sure how much faith you can have in the guy with games against the Colts and Redskins upcoming. And no one should even think about using RB Cedric Benson during the fantasy playoffs.
If you head west, you'll find another team with nary a fantasy option in the Seahawks. QB Matt Hasselbeck's return hasn't sparked this squad at all, and their running game has been virtually nonexistent. No way should you roll the dice with RBs Julius Jones or Maurice Morris. At WR, Bobby Engram has fallen off the face of the earth, and Deion Branch has been up and down since coming back from injury. TE John Carlson could have some value, but only in the right matchup. While Seattle might not be as bad as the Ohio teams, I can't see myself starting any of their players in a crucial fantasy game.
Remember, these next few weeks matter more than the three months leading up to now. To give yourself the best chance to win, your lineup should be filled with reliable players, not ones who could potentially finish with a goose egg.
Here are the injury updates for Sunday's late action:
Here are the injury updates for Sunday's early action:
Well, the bye weeks are over, and chances are, if you're still reading this blog, you've survived. And yet the desperation has not ended. The injuries are ubiquitous and the stakes are exceptionally high.
As you no doubt know by now, I am aiming for largely available players on your waiver wire who you could feasibly plug into your lineup on Sunday if for whatever reason you're missing multiple players. So let's get at it for Week 13, when we will be without Plaxico "Cowboy" Burress and perhaps Willie Parker, Brandon Jacobs, Marion Barber, Steven Jackson, Matt Schaub, and Steve Slaton, among a host of other important fantasy commodities:
Falcons QB Matt Ryan @ SD: Simply stated, no team in the NFL has allowed more passing yards than the Chargers, and only the Cardinals (in one more game) have ceded more passing touchdowns. Although Ryan has just 11 TD tosses in 11 games, he has posted at least 248 yards in each of his last three games and has shown the ability to exploit soft matchups against the Saints (248 yards, two TDs), the Raiders (220, 2) and the Bears (301, 1).
Alternative option: Bucs QB Jeff Garcia vs. NO
Raiders RB Justin Fargas vs. KC: Despite totaling 115 yards on 25 touches last week, Fargas has been kicked to the curb in many leagues because he failed to convert inside the 5-yard line, while teammate Darren McFadden made two handoffs count from short range. With the Chiefs on tap, don't make the mistake of assuming only one Raider runner is in play. In Week Two of this season, Fargas left early with an injury, but both McFadden (164 yards, one TD) and Michael Bush (90 yards, TD) put up numbers.
Alternative option: Jets RB Leon Washington vs. DEN
Bills WR Josh Reed vs. SF: After missing three games to injury, Reed returned last week to post five catches for 50 yards and a score against a patsy Chiefs defense. His presence in the slot was a welcome return for short-passing game extraordinaire Trent Edwards, and it should be once again against a San Fran defense that has allowed the third-most yards and third-most touchdowns to opposing wideouts this season.
Alternative option: Dolphins WR Devone Bess @ STL
Vikings TE Visanthe Shiancoe vs. CHI: Just six weeks ago, Shiancoe dropped 68 yards and a touchdown on the Bears' suspect pass defense. Since then, Chicago has seen Michael Gaines post 6-64, followed by Bo Scaife's 10 catches for 78 yards and a money ball, and then Donald Lee added 33 yards and a score in Week 11. Shiancoe has four touchdowns in his last nine overall contests.
Alternative option: Jags TE Marcedes Lewis vs. HOU
With three NFL games on the slate Thursday (two of which have potential to be very one-sided), here are some interesting fantasy angles to keep an eye on in each bout.
TITANS at LIONS — 12:30 PM ET (CBS)
SEAHAWKS at COWBOYS — 4:15 PM ET (FOX)
CARDINALS at EAGLES — 8:15 PM ET (NFL NETWORK)
You'd think twice, if not three times, before allowing your fantasy QB to take to the air in wintry, blizzard-like conditions. So why in the world will you gloss over your kicker position without pausing to consider the same?
Fantasy kickers are notorious for being wildily inconsistent, not only from one season to the next but from one week to the next. As much as we like to think we're brilliant, even those of us who spend our entire lives tracking these kickers can't accurately predict how many opportunities each will get against whom. So why let Mother Nature completely eliminate your potential to put up points at one of your starting positions?
In Week 13, I will be checking weather conditions in Philly, Green Bay, Cincy, Cleveland, New England and Buffalo before solidifying my lineup. As juicy as Rian Lindell's matchup is with the Niners, there is no chance I will use him over Robbie Gould (indoors @ MIN) if wintry conditions surface in upstate NY.
If you're having trouble figuring out who to rank first among your waiver pickups this week, the answer is simple: Saints RB Pierre Thomas. That is, of course, if he's still available in your league.
It's been a strange season for Thomas. He started out with a bang (three TDs in the first three weeks), then took a backseat to Deuce McAllister for a long stretch, and now he's looking like a stud fantasy back again. Although anything is possible, I think Thomas' hot streak will continue for the rest of the year, as Deuce's days as an impact rusher appear to be over.
Even when Reggie Bush returns — whenever that may be — Thomas should still maintain lots of value. He is a hard-charging runner with a nose for the goal line, and his production lately has been superb. In his last two outings, the Illinois product has 31 carries for 175 yards and three TDs. That equates to a score about every 10 carries and a tremendous 5.6-yard average.
Thomas also has proven to be a skilled pass catcher. In the past three weeks, he has 12 catches for 124 yards. Now, his receiving stats are likely to take a hit once the versatile Bush is back on the field, but it really won't matter if he continues to run the ball well.
The bottom line is this: With your waiver wire probably bereft of talent by now, Thomas is a rare example of a late-season addition that could have a major impact in the fantasy playoffs. Hopefully you can pounce on him before your fellow owners try to do the same.
Here are the injury updates for Sunday's late action:
Here are the injury updates for Sunday's early action:
If you have any tough lineup decisions this week involving QBs or pass catchers from the Texans or Browns, you might be better off going with your other options.
Forecasts for the 1:00 PM ET tilt in Cleveland call for temps in the mid-30s with winds around 11 mph and a slight chance of rain. While that sort of weather won't make throwing impossible, it certainly could affect the passing attacks of both clubs. If the winds kick up, each team could opt to play it safe by keeping the ball on the ground.
Neither Brady Quinn nor Sage Rosenfels was a great fantasy option anyway, but this puts an even bigger damper on their prospects for this week. Only use them if you absolutely have to. On the other hand, Jamal Lewis and Steve Slaton should get a lot of work and definitely should be in lineups. Even Ahman Green could have some starting value in deeper leagues.
Other games that could be affected by cold weather include Eagles-Ravens and Bills-Chiefs, though neither of those contests are likely to see any sort of rain, just low temps. It's probably not worth tinkering with any guys from these four teams.
Well, the bye weeks are over, and chances are, if you're still reading this blog, you've survived. And yet the desperation has not ended. The injuries are ubiquitous and the stakes are exceptionally high.
Again, I am aiming for largely available players on your waiver wire who you could feasibly plug into your lineup on Sunday if for whatever reason you're missing multiple players. So let's get at it for Week 12, when we will be without Steven Jackson and perhaps Reggie Bush, Brian Westbrook, Plaxico Burress and Kellen Winslow, among a host of other important fantasy commodities:
Bucs QB Jeff Garcia @ DET: The Lions have played 10 games this season, and in six of them, the opposing quarterback has posted multiple TDs. And we're not talking about Peyton Manning and Drew Brees here, folks. More like J.T. O'Sullivan, Matt Schaub, David Garrard, and the formidable Kyle Orton/Rex Grossman two-headed monster. Garcia, who posted 316 yards and two TDs in a meeting with the Lions a year ago, will also not be able to lean on Earnest Graham, who is done for the season.
Alternative option: Bears QB Kyle Orton @ STL
Bills RB Fred Jackson @ KC: Last week in this spot I gave you Pierre Thomas as the next backup RB to submit starter-level contributions against that swiss-cheese Chiefs' run defense. How'd that workout? Thomas busted out for 144 total yards and a score against the fantasy-friendliest run defense in the NFL, and now comes Jackson's turn behind Marshawn Lynch. He will join a long list of backups who the Chiefs have made look like Pro Bowlers, one that also includes Leon Washington, LenDale White, Jonathan Stewart, Jerious Norwood and Michael Bush.
Alternative option: Giants RB Derrick Ward @ ARI
Giants WR Steve Smith @ ARI: I don't mean to pick on the Cardinals, but heck, the numbers don't lie. Arizona has allowed more WR touchdowns (14) than any team in the NFL, and they've particularly struggled against the smaller, quicker types such as Santana Moss (7-75-1), Laveranues Coles (8-105-3), Lee Evans (2-100-1), and Carolina's Steve Smith (5-117-2). Smith may even see a larger share of the pie if Plax misses time with a hamstring problem that kept him out of practice this week.
Alternative option: Redskins WR Antwaan Randle El @ SEA
Giants TE Kevin Boss @ ARI: Prior to last week, Boss had scored in three straight games, catching the attention of fantasy owners, but he was quickly discarded after a goose egg in Week 11. Still, TE teammate Darcy Johnson caught a TD last week, making it four straight games in which Eli has found a TE in the end zone. You have to like that red-zone trend, especially with the Cardinals having recently ceded a score to TE Vernon Davis and five targets to TE John Carlson last week.
Alternative option: Browns TE Steve Heiden vs. HOU
The list of injured RBs for Week 12 reads like a who's who of fantasy studs, a fact that will provide more than a few of us with a couple sleepless nights this weekend. Here's a brief rundown of all the backfield bruises that have left a littany of talented backs iffy for Sunday's action:
Clinton Portis: Technically questionable, he is more like probable for the 4:15 kickoff despite barely practicing at all this week.
Brandon Jacobs: One of three NFL leaders with 11 TDs, Jacobs appears set to shake off a knee injury and is listed as probable.
Steve Slaton: Limited all week in practice, the surprise rook has a chest injury and general soreness but is not expected to miss a tasty matchup vs. CLE.
Brian Westbrook: As if the Ravens' D wasn't disconcerting enough for the slumping stud, Westbrook is a game-time decision as Uncle Buck prepares as his understudy yet again.
LenDale White: White (calf) shares the league lead with Jacobs and is as likely to play too. He returned to practice Thursday and Friday and sounds like a sure thing to suit up.
Reggie Bush: Bush came through Thursday's workout fine and had a planned day of rest on Friday. He's officially questionable, and Saturday's workout will determine his status for Monday night. Tough to roll the dice on him for MNF though.
Steven Jackson: Um, no.
Darren McFadden: Only three carries in Week 11, but McFadden practiced extensively this week and draws the lowly Broncos defense this Sunday.
Stay tuned to this blog on Sunday morning for breaking news and confirmation on all of the above.
Not enough credit was given to Redskins RB Clinton Portis for playing with a sprained MCL in his knee last week. Despite not practicing for two straight weeks (including the bye), he still suited up for a huge game against the Cowboys. It wasn't Portis' best performance — 15 carries for 68 yards — but just having their offensive star on the field was key to the 'Skins almost pulling out the win.
Now, I know guys have played through much worse injuries before, but in this day and age, doing what Portis did is more the exception than the rule. From my experience tracking players' injury status, most skill players who miss an entire week's worth of practice and are considered "very questionable" wind up missing the game. And it's especially rare to see anybody play with a damaged knee ligament. Usually, much lesser ailments (a bruised thigh, anyone?) can keep guys out for multiple weeks.
Unfortunately for Portis' fantasy owners, the fact that he played on Sunday night meant that most people had to go with other options last week. But the good news is that the NFL's second-leading rusher, despite still having soreness in his knee, says he has no plans to miss any games going forward.
Owners of Portis should feel lucky to have a guy they know they can rely on week-in and week-out. We fantasy freaks would have a lot less headaches if there were more players that followed this example.
Warrick Dunn hasn't really been an exciting fantasy player for a couple years now, but that could change in the final six weeks of this season. That's because RB Earnest Graham is expected to miss the rest of '08 with an ankle injury, putting Dunn squarely in the driver's seat in Tampa Bay's backfield.
Dunn, likely a free agent in many leagues, could be a difference maker for your team down the stretch, especially if you're an owner of someone like the injured Steven Jackson. Even in limited duty, Dunn has not been bad at all this season, averaging 4.4 yards per carry and racking up 26 catches for 207 yards. His 683 yards from scrimmage has him on pace for a solid 1,093 for the year. About the only thing he probably won't give you is TDs, and he may even get more scoring opportunities now that he's the featured back.
With games still left against porous rush defenses like the Lions, Saints, Falcons and Raiders, the 33-year-old back could be in store for a big finish. And don't worry about the imminent return of RB Cadillac Williams — he's not going to be healthy enough to steal many carries at this point. The contending Bucs will want their most reliable players in there, and Dunn is by far the most dependable back they have left.
Every year we see unexpected guys make a surprise impact during the fantasy playoffs, and I think Dunn has a good chance to do just that this year. Just make sure you grab him before he goes off at Detroit on Sunday.